With the NBA Playoffs now in full swing, many bettors are eager to get into the action. Thus far, the playoffs have been exciting, with specific players taking over the series and putting together unbelievable performances.
It has been tough to watch LeBron struggle and ultimately get eliminated in the first round; however, it is impressive to see the “flipping” of this next generation of talent. Betting on the NBA can be profitable if you stay consistent and use a sound, strategic guide.
Best Strategies to Bet on Basketball
There are a variety of strategies that will lead to you increasing your bankroll betting on NBA games. We’ve included some of the most valuable ones below.
Live Betting:
Live betting is one of the challenging but rewarding ways to bet on NBA games. Liv, you are simply betting on a game after it has tipped off. Some professionals love it because it allows analytical watchers to capitalize on live value, and it can come in some different forms.
If a star player gets injured and believes that he isn’t that important, you can have a more accurate prediction than the broader market.
Another example of a favorable bet is when the line adjusts after the start of the game. An example of this would be taking a full game overbet after a very low-scoring first quarter. You would be predicting that the scoring pace will revert to the original projection over the rest of the game, and you will hit the over bet at a more favorable number than it initially was.
Breaking Down Matchups:
While using data can seem like a drag, doing sufficient research on a game can significantly increase your profitability in the long term. One way to see the long-term is by analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of each team in a matchup. One of the most emphasized pieces of information is how teams fare against the spread (ATS), as determined by Vegas lines.
It’s easy to find ATS records because public information is available on various sites for all major professional sports leagues. This could be a determining factor in finding teams with hidden value. Teams with bad overall records but good ATS performances may be misleading, and you may be able to take advantage of these spots.
Overall, the more information you have about a game, the better you will handicap it. Studying recent form, key statistics, and playing styles make a drastic difference in betting success than solely going off prior sports knowledge.
Utilizing Player Props:
Another unique way to wager on NBA games is through player props. Many books will offer lines specific to individual players in a particular game. Player props are a great way to profit when you feel confident about individual performances but not the game’s outcome. If you know specific players well, it can lead to increased profitability over the long run.
The key to understanding players is you may be better suited to estimate their tendencies, and it will help you project who will be guarding them and how many minutes they can expect. It is essential to understand this and how it relates to a best of 7 playoff series.
If you can project how much usage a player will get from one series to another, you can make informed bets.
For example, Kawhi Leonard’s total points prop is set at Over/Under 32.5 points for Game 7 of this Mavericks series. If you feel like he is due for a big game, as the Clippers are facing elimination and he took over in game 6, then you may look to bet over.
Kawhi averaged 24.5 ppg against the L3 years against this similar Mavericks team, so if you think he is overperforming and will double-team him, you may look to bet under.
But, again, it is crucial to utilize stats to perspective the market line, and it is how you can come up with your edges.
Capitalizing on Line Movement
Fading the public can be a profitable strategy in the right situation. Also, riding with the pros is usually a good option. The key is to utilize both of these at the correct times to make more informed betting decisions. For example, an individual could look at a game where the spread has moved from 5 to 7 points and think:
“I am following the pro and sharp money and will take that same side as them.”
However, doing this is a long-term losing strategy. Therefore, it is imperative to notice that you are not betting the same numbers as the professionals and will feel the long-term effects. Once the odds or line moves, the value of the bet is lost (or mostly lost).
There are certain instances in which fading the public can work quite well. One way to do this effectively is to look for inflated lines in which the public is heavily lopsided on one team. When this happens, it forces the books to move the line further towards that team and opens up additional value for savvy bettors to capitalize.
One way to do this is to bet on the road team in your local city. So, for example, if you live in Philadelphia, you should always include a bet on the team playing the eagles that day before you submit your card.
Thinking bigger picture with this similar theme, the Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor fight was one of the best events to utilize this strategy. Although Conor was a massive underdog, he confidently carried himself and had an extensive fan base.
In addition, there are a lot of people who wanted to see Floyd go down in any of his matches. Tons of public money came in on Conor, and Floyd won easily.
Basketball Betting Profitability:
Generally, basketball can be an extremely profitable sport to bet on if you stick to the right system and manage your bankroll effectively. The consensus among betting professionals is to allocate no more than 1 to 2 percent of your bankroll on each bet, with 5 percent being the max to maintain consistency and avoid tilting when you hit a cold run.
It also allows for long-term stability, which will increase profits down the line.
Although this may seem like a conservative strategy to beginner bettors, you’ll be far more likely to maintain consistent earnings while also avoiding the stress of having a quarter of your bankroll at stake.
Best NBA Betting Sites
One of the most important aspects of being a successful sports bettor at any level is having multiple sportsbooks open so you can find the best line when looking for the specific bet you would like to place.
It is also essential to know which sportsbook has the best bonuses and odds for what you’re interested in betting.
BetOnline.com has recently introduced a new product called the Prop Builder. If you are looking to bet any props, it would be essential to use this to your advantage.
You can build a player prop by searching the player’s name and then choosing which statistic, points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, steals, etc., you would like to include in your bet. This is the ideal product if you want to have the most control over what you are betting.
Finding the right sportsbook can be a difficult task. However, Safest Betting Sites is a trusted sportsbook reviewer in the industry, and they know how to improve your betting experience.
Final Thoughts
There aren’t any specific NBA promotions going on. However, it is vital to keep in mind that certain books offer bonuses and promotions. It is always beneficial to have multiple accounts open to capitalize on efficiencies and optimize your betting experience.
The NBA playoffs are picking up, and you should get out there and enjoy it!
Jared is a sports analyst and +EV bettor sharing his thoughts and expertise on various sports in the gambling industry. You may find Jared on Twitter @mrblade135.
