NEW DELHI: The BJP-led NDA is winning Puducherry, barely retaining Assam and losing Tamil Nadu, whereas the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress is likely to retain West Bengal while Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF will make a clean sweep in Kerala, as per the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News.
The findings and projections are based on personal interviews conducted statewide on and after polling day among adults, all confirmed voters. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the states. “We believe this will give the closest possible trends,” said C-Voter founder and psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh.
The Delhi-based polling agency highlighted in its exit poll that Mamata Banerjee is set to retain West Bengal, even as the BJP is likely to win on 109 to 121 seats, while the M.K. Stalin-led DMK will win Tamil Nadu with a big majority.
The sample size of the exit poll was 28,393 in Assam, 43,630 in Tamil Nadu, 5,003 in Puducherry, 26,447 in Kerala and 85,000 in West Bengal.
Deshmukh also said that for the analytics, they used proprietary algorithm to calculate the provincial and regional vote share based on the split-voter phenomenon. The same algorithm has been used to extrapolate the vote share projections into probable seat share in range.
The C-Voter exit poll data collection starts right after the polling process and continues until the elections are over. “Technically speaking, for a single state, we conduct interviews across randomly selected polling booths across all assembly segments,” Deshmukh said.
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala went to the polls in a single phase on April 6. In West Bengal, polling was held in eight phases from March 27 to April 29. In Assam polling was held in three phases from March 27 to April 6.
