Over the past few months, there have been many questions raised around whether or not we’d actually see the Tokyo Olympics take place as growing calls were mounted for cancellation over public health concerns – vaccination rates still remain low in Japan and the general public has been mounting pressure through fear that travel and increased traffic in the country could lead to further problems.
Despite this, it looks as if things are to move forward as planned, bookies in Japan continue to prepare odds on some of the more popular events and categories, and both the IOC and Japanese Prime Minister continue to assure things will go off without a hitch – and here’s why.
Sunk cost fallacy – The sunk cost fallacy dictates that you’re more likely to pursue an endeavour if you’ve already sunk a great deal or time, effort, or money into that endeavour, and losing the $35 billion investment is a big hit to take. Whilst it may be less of the fallacy side of things as securing a bid for the Olympics is no small feat on its own, but a great deal had already been lost with the postponement the first time around back at the start of 2020, so to have to fully cancel would be something entirely different and is one reason that’s strong enough on its own to show why it’s unlikely there will be any changes to the plans moving forward.
Japan may not have much choice in the matter – It has also been documented over the years that the Olympics are largely a one-sided deal – organisation is made to favour the IOC, the country hosts the Olympics as a benefit for the IOC whilst the host city often gets left to saddle the consequences and fit those arrangements in. Anything goes wrong, and that’s on the host and not the IOC, and much like the sunken cost this also extends outwards to any consequences too. Japan may not be able to cancel the event without the IOC’s blessing, and if they do choose to go over the head of the committee, then they also have to be willing to accept the consequences of doing so outside of just the money invested.
Other factors may also come in to play such as it just being too late, as some Olympics critics have suggested that it would be difficult to just halt the event now given how close it is, and as such these next few months leading up to and going through the event will certainly be interesting. Other calls will start to increase targeted towards the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics now too for the same concerns, and Japan may prove to be a testing ground for whether or not the winter games can go ahead as planned.
